Warm weather duration UK Summers is likely to stay here to stay
Henry Nicholls/AFP through Getty Images
The United Kingdom must be urgently prepared for summer temperatures greater than 40 ° C (104 ° F), according to the position with the position, the national weather service of the country, which warns that the hood of extremely high summer temperatures is the climbed climate.
Temperatures in Lincolnshire, in the east of the United Kingdom, reached a record of 40.3 ° C (104.5 ° F) in July 2022, the highest level never registered in the country. The heat wave was made at least 10 times more likely due to climate change, scientists said at that time.
The researchers now warn that these extremes won are an isolated event. The team, led by Gillian Kay in the office with the office, used a climate model to simulate more than 2500 United Kingdom Summers to evaluate possible ends in 2023 climatic conditions.
The results show that there is a 50 percent probability of temperatures greater than 40 ° C in the next 12 years, with the south and east of England more vulnerable to heat ends. The research has increased rapidly in recent decades, increasing six times since the 1980s and almost tripled since 2000, according to the investigation.
Meanwhile, temperatures greater than 42 ° C (107.6 ° F) have a 1 percent probability or that occur in any specific year, and the maximum possible temperature that the United Kingdom could the current climatic conditions are 46.6 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °. “Excessively weird,” says Kay.
The simulations also give meteorologists an idea of the necessary climatic conditions to produce extreme heat in the United Kingdom. The most likely scenario is a persistent heat wave that settles in Europe, with hot air that moves through the southern and east coasts of the United Kingdom. This week, With Office warned that a new heat wave rose to the United Kingdom, caused by intense heat throughout the European continent.
Heat waves have become more persistent as the weather has heated. The hot summer of 1976 saw the daytime temperatures remain above 28 ° C (82.4 ° F) for fifteen days; Under today’s climate, such conditions could persist for more than a month, according to new research. Simulations show that three or four consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 40 ° C are also possible in current conditions.
“Temperatures are possible several degrees above 40 ° C we saw in July 2022, and we must be prepared for them,” says Kay, pointing out that as the weather is heated, such temperatures become increasingly probable. Duration of the heat wave of July 2022, the United Kingdom struggled to deal with a heat letter above 40 ° C. more than 1200 excess deaths were recorded, rail transport was interrupted, schools closed and forest fires swept the field.
Kay urged public authorities, particularly those responsible for public health, to “prove” their systems to ensure that they can face such extreme temperatures properly. “With the office and other similar organizations have said for a long time that with climate change, we should expect more intense and more frequent thermal waves,” he says. “This is exactly what we are seeing in the study.”
Prolonged heat waves are dangerous. Not only do environmental ecosystems hang (soil drying, withered plants, stress the life of animals, but also accumulate stress in the human body, especially if the temperatures of the day and night remain high for a long period. The most durable heat waves significantly increase the risk of death by heart judgment and stroke. The risk is higher in regions where the persistent warm Unusual, as in the United Kingdom, since houses rarely have air conditioning.